hellwoman
02-12-2007, 02:39 AM
February 11, 2007
Gwen Mickelson, In the Water:
O Maverick's, where are thou?
In December, when behemoth winter swells sent 35- to 40-foot sets reeling into big-wave spots like Nelscott Reef, it seemed like a definite precursor to an epic big-wave season and another larger-than-life Maverick's contest.
But ever since that one explosive period in December, the Pacific's gone as docile as a lapdog, while the clock ticks on Maverick's January-through-March window. Of the 13 weeks organizers have given Mother Nature to cooperate with their plans, 6 have bashfully shuffled off into the past.
What the heck is going on? Usually late December and January come charging out of the gates, full of swaggering northern swells with bad attitude. Even if there aren't contest-worthy swells then, things generally kinda get rolling. But this winter the ocean's been more like a lamb than a lion.
"It's been a very, very, very strange season," agreed official Maverick's Surf Contest forecaster Mark Sponsler of Stormsurf.
Still, that's not to mean there's reason to panic. There still is plenty of time left in the window. And contests have certainly been held later than this: In 2004 and 2005, the competition was in late February and early March, respectively.
Last year's event was held in early February, and it was widely regarded as one of the best contest days ever seen at Mav's, with clean and powerful 15- to 20-foot waves, sunshine and a light breeze.
No one knows what's going to happen a couple weeks from now. But the likelihood of a really kick-butt swell like last year's did take a little dip on Thursday, according to Nathan Cool, chief forecaster for surf site WetSand and founder of the forecasting service WaveCast.
That's because the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, a division of the National Weather Service, issued a report that day forecasting that the light El Niño we've been in will end in March.
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Usually, El Niño conditions mean big waves here and Hawaii because the jetstream lowers and helps to guide storms across the Pacific directly at the California coast, said Cool.
From a Maverick's perspective, that's exactly what you want, according to Sponsler.
"You want an open corridor under the Aleutian Islands from the dateline into the Gulf of Alaska," he said.
Last year's storm that made the ideal waves followed that track precisely.
With an El Niño in place, you'd think big waves would follow, but this year the jetstream has come off of Japan to the dateline, and just east of the dateline it's been getting split asunder.
"Storms come barrelling off of Japan, hit the dateline and get ripped apart, basically," said Sponsler. "It's just storm after storm all winter has followed that pattern exactly. And that's also what's made the incredibly dry weather here"
Why it's been splitting, "I have no idea," said Sponsler. "It gets in a mode sometimes and stays there, and this year it's unbelievably persistent. We get a little dribble out of it surf-wise, and that's it"
And now that El Niño is said to be coming to an end by March, "equatorial waters are pretty much right now in a neutral state, which is kind of bad news for big winter surf," said Cool.
Sponsler agreed, saying recent climatic factors "stack the decks a little more in the unlikely category that you're going to get something"
But of course, surf forecasting is an uncertain science — "a little bit of art and voodoo," says Sponsler — and you just don't know what's going to happen. Forecasters also often can't give specifics much more than a week out.
For their part, Mavericks Surf Contest organizers are optimistic, according to Keir Beadling of Mavericks Surf Ventures, the San Francisco company that's put on the contest for the past three years.
"We play the waiting game every year," he wrote in an e-mail, bringing up the example of the times in the past when the contest has been late in the window. "Plenty of time left in the waiting period"
The fact that the event is dependent upon Mother Nature is one of the most exciting things about it, he wrote. The organizers feel good about the ol' gal cooperating once again this season.
"She's been great to us in the past, so we'll humbly wait until she's ready," he wrote.
In 2002, when the contest was run by Quiksilver and called Men Who Ride Mountains, a Maverick's-caliber swell failed to arrive.
On April 1 that year, Jeff Clark, contest organizer and Mav's pioneer, was quoted in the Sentinel as saying, "It's done, there's nothing out there. The winter wave season is over. This year was a case of Mother Nature not cooperating. We just didn't get a six- or eight-hour period of contest-sized surf this winter like we'd hoped for"
Now, with big-name sponsors like Ask.com, a big-cash prize purse of $75-large and big crowds expected to turn out for and tune into the event, it seems to me there's a lot of money and prestige riding on the contest happening.
Aside from those things, everyone likes to watch the competition, with its drama and physical extremes, its charismatic and athletic participants, its California exoticism and inherent danger.
But when you step back to consider things, this event has had a remarkable history of consistency.
"The odds of everything coming together and occurring just right — it takes an amazing confluence of events for it to happen, and it's happened year after year, and they've been able to hold the contest," said Sponsler. "It's an amazing run of good luck and a testament to fact that Maverick's is well positioned in the Pacific Ocean"
OLIVIA'S BOOK: Olivia Locatelli is putting together a book about her dad, Mike, and she's looking for some help. She wants little stories about her dad from people who know or have known him, when he was well and surfing. Pictures of him, and of him surfing, would be great, too.
As you may recall, Mike Locatelli, a longtime member of the surf community, former owner of Portola Surf Shop and once a leader in the Ride-A-Wave program, has battled brain tumors for more than 15 years. Operations last year left him wheelchair-bound; he is now unable to move or talk, is in a lot of pain and requires 24-hour assistance, according to friends.
Stories and photos for Olivia's book can be sent in the mail care of Johnny and Rosemari Rice, 209 Columbia St., Santa Cruz CA 95060 or e-mailed to johnny@johnnyrice.com.
WRONG PAPPAS: In Pete Pappas confusion, I inadvertently stated that the Pete Pappas of last week's surfing-in-the-bitter-cold story was the Pete Pappas who owns Cowell's Surf Shop. Erroneous! The cold-surfin' Pappas is a whole 'nother guy with the same name, he said. Pardon the Pappas faux pas.
SURF QUOTE OF THE WEEK: "It's comedy, what I do. People ask what I do for a living, and I do nothing. I pick up a check in the mail and go surfing. And when the waves aren't up in Hawaii, somebody pays me to surf somewhere else" — Brock Little, "Interview," 1991 [from "Surfing and the Meaning of Life"].
Send surf items to Gwen Mickelson at gmickelson@santacruzsentinel.com.
http://www.santacruzsentinel.com/archive/2007/February/11/sport/stories/03sport.htm
Gwen Mickelson, In the Water:
O Maverick's, where are thou?
In December, when behemoth winter swells sent 35- to 40-foot sets reeling into big-wave spots like Nelscott Reef, it seemed like a definite precursor to an epic big-wave season and another larger-than-life Maverick's contest.
But ever since that one explosive period in December, the Pacific's gone as docile as a lapdog, while the clock ticks on Maverick's January-through-March window. Of the 13 weeks organizers have given Mother Nature to cooperate with their plans, 6 have bashfully shuffled off into the past.
What the heck is going on? Usually late December and January come charging out of the gates, full of swaggering northern swells with bad attitude. Even if there aren't contest-worthy swells then, things generally kinda get rolling. But this winter the ocean's been more like a lamb than a lion.
"It's been a very, very, very strange season," agreed official Maverick's Surf Contest forecaster Mark Sponsler of Stormsurf.
Still, that's not to mean there's reason to panic. There still is plenty of time left in the window. And contests have certainly been held later than this: In 2004 and 2005, the competition was in late February and early March, respectively.
Last year's event was held in early February, and it was widely regarded as one of the best contest days ever seen at Mav's, with clean and powerful 15- to 20-foot waves, sunshine and a light breeze.
No one knows what's going to happen a couple weeks from now. But the likelihood of a really kick-butt swell like last year's did take a little dip on Thursday, according to Nathan Cool, chief forecaster for surf site WetSand and founder of the forecasting service WaveCast.
That's because the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, a division of the National Weather Service, issued a report that day forecasting that the light El Niño we've been in will end in March.
Advertisement
Usually, El Niño conditions mean big waves here and Hawaii because the jetstream lowers and helps to guide storms across the Pacific directly at the California coast, said Cool.
From a Maverick's perspective, that's exactly what you want, according to Sponsler.
"You want an open corridor under the Aleutian Islands from the dateline into the Gulf of Alaska," he said.
Last year's storm that made the ideal waves followed that track precisely.
With an El Niño in place, you'd think big waves would follow, but this year the jetstream has come off of Japan to the dateline, and just east of the dateline it's been getting split asunder.
"Storms come barrelling off of Japan, hit the dateline and get ripped apart, basically," said Sponsler. "It's just storm after storm all winter has followed that pattern exactly. And that's also what's made the incredibly dry weather here"
Why it's been splitting, "I have no idea," said Sponsler. "It gets in a mode sometimes and stays there, and this year it's unbelievably persistent. We get a little dribble out of it surf-wise, and that's it"
And now that El Niño is said to be coming to an end by March, "equatorial waters are pretty much right now in a neutral state, which is kind of bad news for big winter surf," said Cool.
Sponsler agreed, saying recent climatic factors "stack the decks a little more in the unlikely category that you're going to get something"
But of course, surf forecasting is an uncertain science — "a little bit of art and voodoo," says Sponsler — and you just don't know what's going to happen. Forecasters also often can't give specifics much more than a week out.
For their part, Mavericks Surf Contest organizers are optimistic, according to Keir Beadling of Mavericks Surf Ventures, the San Francisco company that's put on the contest for the past three years.
"We play the waiting game every year," he wrote in an e-mail, bringing up the example of the times in the past when the contest has been late in the window. "Plenty of time left in the waiting period"
The fact that the event is dependent upon Mother Nature is one of the most exciting things about it, he wrote. The organizers feel good about the ol' gal cooperating once again this season.
"She's been great to us in the past, so we'll humbly wait until she's ready," he wrote.
In 2002, when the contest was run by Quiksilver and called Men Who Ride Mountains, a Maverick's-caliber swell failed to arrive.
On April 1 that year, Jeff Clark, contest organizer and Mav's pioneer, was quoted in the Sentinel as saying, "It's done, there's nothing out there. The winter wave season is over. This year was a case of Mother Nature not cooperating. We just didn't get a six- or eight-hour period of contest-sized surf this winter like we'd hoped for"
Now, with big-name sponsors like Ask.com, a big-cash prize purse of $75-large and big crowds expected to turn out for and tune into the event, it seems to me there's a lot of money and prestige riding on the contest happening.
Aside from those things, everyone likes to watch the competition, with its drama and physical extremes, its charismatic and athletic participants, its California exoticism and inherent danger.
But when you step back to consider things, this event has had a remarkable history of consistency.
"The odds of everything coming together and occurring just right — it takes an amazing confluence of events for it to happen, and it's happened year after year, and they've been able to hold the contest," said Sponsler. "It's an amazing run of good luck and a testament to fact that Maverick's is well positioned in the Pacific Ocean"
OLIVIA'S BOOK: Olivia Locatelli is putting together a book about her dad, Mike, and she's looking for some help. She wants little stories about her dad from people who know or have known him, when he was well and surfing. Pictures of him, and of him surfing, would be great, too.
As you may recall, Mike Locatelli, a longtime member of the surf community, former owner of Portola Surf Shop and once a leader in the Ride-A-Wave program, has battled brain tumors for more than 15 years. Operations last year left him wheelchair-bound; he is now unable to move or talk, is in a lot of pain and requires 24-hour assistance, according to friends.
Stories and photos for Olivia's book can be sent in the mail care of Johnny and Rosemari Rice, 209 Columbia St., Santa Cruz CA 95060 or e-mailed to johnny@johnnyrice.com.
WRONG PAPPAS: In Pete Pappas confusion, I inadvertently stated that the Pete Pappas of last week's surfing-in-the-bitter-cold story was the Pete Pappas who owns Cowell's Surf Shop. Erroneous! The cold-surfin' Pappas is a whole 'nother guy with the same name, he said. Pardon the Pappas faux pas.
SURF QUOTE OF THE WEEK: "It's comedy, what I do. People ask what I do for a living, and I do nothing. I pick up a check in the mail and go surfing. And when the waves aren't up in Hawaii, somebody pays me to surf somewhere else" — Brock Little, "Interview," 1991 [from "Surfing and the Meaning of Life"].
Send surf items to Gwen Mickelson at gmickelson@santacruzsentinel.com.
http://www.santacruzsentinel.com/archive/2007/February/11/sport/stories/03sport.htm